Most experts have been preaching that Toronto has enjoyed a real estate boom for over a decade and that the only direction for the market to go is straight down. Sales for the residential real estate market are primarily driven by population. Periodically people postpone their sales due to a severe change in economic conditions. For the most part, people move because of changes to their family make up. The Chart below shows the number of sales per hundred thousand of population in the GTA covered by TREB. First the range is quite narrow which shows you how stable our market is. Secondly, you can see that sales peaked in 2007. And for 2012, sales were the lowest since 2001. So what does that tell you about future sales?
We can be fairly safe in predicting that there will be no drop off in sales, and that going forward, sales will actually begin to increase. The proof is in the three rows below. In order they are: calendar years, number of annual sales on TREB, GTA population in ’000, and the final row is sales per 100,000 people.
2001 2006 2007 2011 2012
5,081 5,555 5,596 6,054 6,154
67,612 83,084 93,193 89,096 85,540
13.31 14.96 16.65 14.72 13.89
1) Population for 2001, 2006, and 2011 are from Stats Can Census. Population for 2007 and 2012 are Stats Can estimates.
2) TREB sales in 2007 were an ‘all time’ record